Energy first, friendship forward: Research on the influencing factors of sustainable green energy trade between China and the Asian-African Belt and Road countries
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15611/aoe.2026.2.06Keywords:
energy trade, Belt and Road Initiative, influencing factors, gravity modelAbstract
Aim: The article examines the determinants of bilateral energy trade between China and 32 Asian-African Belt and Road countries from 2000 to 2020. It investigates how various economic, technological, environmental, and social factors influence energy trade cooperation in the context of the Belt and Road Energy Cooperation Vision and Action Plan and the Belt and Road Energy Partnership. The authors explored direct effects and mediating mechanisms through bilateral political relations and urbanisation, while also analysing the way these impacts vary across different development stages, regions, and income levels.
Methodology: The study employed a gravity model of trade using panel data covering the 21-year period from 2000 to 2020. Key explanatory variables included economic scale (GDP), labour market size, carbon dioxide emissions, air transport volume, mobile cellular subscriptions, renewable energy consumption, electrification rate, medium-high-tech manufacturing value added, and the share of goods and services imports. Bilateral political relations and urbanisation were introduced as mediating variables to examine indirect effects. Robustness tests were conducted to confirm the reliability and validity of the results. The analysis also included heterogeneity analysis to examine variations across different country groupings.
Results: The findings revealed that GDP, renewable energy consumption, and import ratios significantly enhanced China's energy imports, while electrification levels had an inhibiting effect. Economic size was found to enhance bilateral political ties, whereas electrification weakened them. Renewable energy consumption constrained urbanisation, while electrification encouraged it. The heterogeneity analysis demonstrated that impacts varied significantly across development stages, regions, and income levels. GDP and trade openness consistently promoted energy trade across all country groups, but environmental and technological factors showed divergent effects between Middle Eastern and non-Middle Eastern economies, as well as between high-income and low-income countries.
Implications and recommendations: The article suggests that policymakers should leverage economic growth and trade openness as consistent drivers of energy cooperation among the ‘Belt and Road’ countries. Differentiated strategies are needed for countries at various development stages and income levels. For Middle Eastern and non-Middle Eastern countries, and both high-income lowincome economies, tailored approaches addressing environmental and technological factors are essential. The findings highlight the importance of considering renewable energy consumption and electrification rates when designing energy cooperation policies, as these factors have complex effects on both trade volumes and mediating variables such as political relations and urbanisation. Strengthening bilateral political relations through economic engagement can facilitate energy trade cooperation.
Originality/value: This study contributes original insights by comprehensively analysing energy trade determinants within the ‘Belt and Road’ framework using an extensive 21-year panel dataset. It uniquely incorporates mediating variables (bilateral political relations and urbanisation) to reveal indirect mechanisms affecting energy trade. The heterogeneity analysis across development stages, geographical regions (Middle Eastern compared to non-Middle Eastern), and income levels provides nuanced understanding of how factors differentially impact various country groupings. This multidimensional approach offers valuable empirical evidence for understanding the complexities of China's -energy cooperation with Asian-African Belt and Road countries, filling a gap in existing literature on regional energy trade dynamics.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Jian Hu, Shumin Chen, Henglang Xie, Shenglin Ma
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Accepted 2026-02-07
Published 2026-10-16
