Complex network perspectives on global grain trade: The role of the Black Sea Grain Initiative
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15611/aoe.2026.2.04Keywords:
Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), food security, grain trade, complex network analysis, UkraineAbstract
Aim: The aim of this article was to analyse the structural impacts of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) on wheat and corn trade networks and to develop policy-relevant insights to enhance the resilience of grain supply chains in the face of geopolitical shocks.
Methodology: Using trade data from the United Nations (UN), the study applied complex network analysis to investigate the structure, connectivity, and clustering of wheat and corn trade networks. The analysis focused particularly on how the Russia–Ukraine war reshaped trade hubs, flow dynamics, and overall network efficiency.
Results: The findings revealed that global wheat and corn trade networks presented an oligopolistic structure, with Ukraine occupying a central role. The conflict led to substantial transformations in network structures, altering both the direction and intensity of trade flows. These changes underlined heightened vulnerabilities, particularly for import-dependent countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Europe.
Implications and recommendations: The article highlights the necessity of strengthening maritime trade routes, implementing international security measures for maritime transportation, and fostering regional cooperation. In addition, it emphasises the importance of reactivating or replacing the BSGI through a new international framework to ensure the continuity of grain flows under conditions of ongoing conflict.
Originality/value: By integrating complex network analysis into the study of grain trade, the article fills a gap in the literature on the structural effects of the BSGI. It contributes to both academic debates and policymaking by identifying fragile points in global supply chains and outlining strategies to enhance resilience against geopolitical shocks.
Downloads
References
Ahmad, N., Shahnawaz, S. K. & Alam, Z. (2021). Food insecurity: Concept, causes, Effects and Possible Solutions. IAR Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 2(1), 105-113. https://doi.org/10.47310/iarjhss.2021.v02i01.024
Atlantic Council. (2023). Russia just quit a grain deal critical to global food supply What happens now? Retrieved July 27, 2024, from https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/russia-just-quit-a-grain-deal-critical-to-global-food-supply-what-happens-now/
Awika, J. M. (2011). Major cereal grains production and use around the world In: M. J. Awika, V. Piironen, & S. Bean (Eds.) Advances in Cereal Science: Implications to Food Processing and Health Promotion American (pp. 1-13). Chemical Society. https://doi.org/10.1021/bk-2011-1089.ch001
Beluhova‐Uzunova, R., Mann, S., Prisacariu, M., & Sadłowski, A. (2024). Compensating for the Indirect Effects of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine–Varied approaches from Bulgaria, Poland and Romania. EuroChoices, 23(1), 11-18. https://doi.org/10.1111/1746-692X.12422
Borrell Fontelles, J. (2023). EEAS, Europe Between Two Wars EU Foreıgn Polıcy In 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2025, from https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/hrvp-josep-borrell-latest-book-europe-between-two-wars-eu-foreign-policy-2023_en
Braun, E., Braun, E., Gyimesi, A., Iloskics, Z., & Sebestyén, T. (2023). Exposure to trade disruptions in case of the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A product network approach. The World Economy, 46(10), 2950-2982. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13417
Countryman, A. M., Litvinov, V., Kolodiazhnyi, I., Bogonos, M., & Nivievskyi, O. (2024). Global economic effects of war‐induced agricultural export declines from Ukraine. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 1–42. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13468
Devadoss, S., & Ridley, W. (2024). Impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the global wheat market. World Development, 173, 106396. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106396
Duchenne-Moutien, R. A., & Neetoo, H. (2021.) Climate change and emerging food safety issues: A review. Journal of Food Protection, 84(11), 1884-1897. https://doi.org/10.4315/JFP-21-141
Ekleme, G., & Yercan, F. (2025). Assessment of the Black Sea Grain Initiative: Crisis Management via Maritime Transportation. Transport Policy, 163, 199-218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.12.011
European Commission (2025). EU-Ukraine Solidarity Lanes. Retrieved September 1, 2025, from https://commission.europa.eu/topics/eu-solidarity-ukraine/eu-assistance-ukraine/eu-ukraine-solidarity-lanes_en
Gautam, V., & Gupta, S. (2023). Envisaging modularity detecting communities in networks: Gephi visuals. EVERGREEN 10(4), 2390–2397. https://doi.org/10.5109/7160929
Goyal, R. & Steinbach, S. (2023). Agricultural commodity markets in the wake of the black sea grain initiative. Economics Letters, 231, 111297. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111297
IFPRI. (2023). Russia terminates Black Sea grain initiative: What’s next for Ukraine and the world? Retrieved Jan 22, 2025, from https://www.ifpri.org/blog/russia-terminates-black-sea-grain-initiative-whats-next-ukraine-and-world/
IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Retrieved December 22, 2024, from https://unfccc.int/documents/196534
Jafari, Y., Engemann, H., & Zimmermann, A. (2023). Food trade and regional trade agreements–A network perspective. Food Policy 119, 102516. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2023.102516
Kemmerling, B., Schetter, C., & Wirkus, L. (2022). The logics of war and food (in) security. Global Food Security, 33, 100634. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100634
Kormych, B., & Averochkina, T. (2023). Black Sea Grain Initiative is Dead, Long Live the New Trade Corridor. Lex Portus 9(4), 7-15. https://doi.org/10.26886/2524-101X.9.4.2023.1
Kozielec, A., Piecuch, J., Daniek, K., & Luty, L. (2024). Challenges to food security in the Middle East and North Africa in the context of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict. Agriculture , 14(1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14010155
Lambiotte, R., Delvenne, J. C., & Barahona, M. (2008). Laplacian dynamics and multiscale modular structure in networks. IEEE Transactions on Network Science and Engineering, 1(2), 76-90. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.0812.1770
Leicht, E. A., & Newman, M. E. J. (2008). Community structure in directed networks. Physical Review Letters, 100(11). https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.100.118703
Liefert, W. (2024). Why is Russia Restricting its Fertiliser and Crop Exports? Euro Choices, 23(1), 4-10. https://doi.org/10.1111/1746-692X.12419
Martins, A. M. (2024). Short‐term market impact of Black Sea Grain Initiative on four grain markets. Journal of Futures Markets, 44(4), 619-630. https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22481
Newman, M. E. J. (2010). Networks: An Introduction. Oxford University Press.
Newman, M. E. J., & Girvan, M. (2004). Finding and evaluating community structure in networks. Physical Review E, 69(2). https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.69.026113
OECD. (2022a). Economic and Social Impacts and Policy Implications of the War in Ukraine|OECD Economic Outlook. Retrieved September 11, 2024, from https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/oecd-economic-outlook/volume-2022/issue-2_4181d61b-en
OECD. (2022b). OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031. Retrieved November 28, 2024, from https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2022-2031_f1b0b29c-en.html
Peng, W., & Berry, E. M. (2019). The Concept of Food Security In W. Peng, & E. M. Berry (Eds.) Encyclopedia of Food Security and Sustainability, (pp. 1–7). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-08-100596-5.22314-7
Poursina, D., Aleks Schaefer, K., Hilburn, S., & Johnson, T. (2024). Economic impacts of the Black Sea grain initiative. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 75(1), 457-464. https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12549
Rabinovych, M. (2025). EU external differentiated integration as a crisis response tool? Evidence from Ukraine. West European Politics, 48(5), 1216-1241. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2024.2401246
Robu, R. G., Alexoaei, A. P., Cojanu, V., & Miron, D. (2024). The cereal network: a baseline approach to current configurations of trade communities. Agricultural and Food Economics, 12(1), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40100-024-00316-8
S&P Global. (2023). Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain initiative. Retrieved September 20, 2024, from https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/russias-withdrawal-from-the-black-sea-grain-initiative.html
Steinbach, S., & Yildirim, Y. (2024). Grain Futures Market Response to the Black Sea Grain Initiative. German Journal of Agricultural Economics Articles, 73(2), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.52825/gjae.v73i2.1343
Trucmel, I. M., & Vintila, A. (2023). An Assessment of the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict on the European Cereal Exports Using Network Theory. Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, 12(1), 46-62. https://doi.org/10.2478/jses-2023-0003
United Nations. (2022). Black Sea Grain Initiative United Nations. Retrieved September 10, 2024, from https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative
United Nations. (2024a). Black Sea Grain Initiative agreement (full text). United Nations Peacemaker. Retrieved September 1, 2025, from https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/default/files/document/files/2024/05/blackseagraininitiativefulltext.pdf
United Nations. (2024b). UN Comtrade Plus: International trade data UN Comtrade. Retrieved September 01, 2024, from https://comtradeplus.un.org/TradeFlow?Frequency=A&Flows=X&CommodityCodes=TOTAL&Partners=0&Reporters=all&period=2023&AggregateBy=none&BreakdownMode=plus
Wang, G., Musa, R. B., Li, B., & Liu, X. (2023). Evolution of global grain trade network and supply risk assessment based on complex network. Mediterranean Journal of Economics, 22(4), 43-55. https://doi.org/10.30682/nm2304c
World Bank. (2020). Addressing the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture. Retrieved September 19, 2024, from https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange
Xu, H., Niu, N., Li, D., & Wang, C. (2024.) A Dynamic Evolutionary Analysis of the Vulnerability of Global Food Trade Networks. Sustainability, 16(10), 3998. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16103998
Yifan, H. (2006). Efficient, high-quality force-directed graph drawing. The Mathematica Journal, 10(1), 37-71.
Zhang, Y. T., Li, M. Y., & Zhou, W. X. (2024). Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on International Staple Agrifood Trade Networks. Foods, 13(13), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods13132134
Zhu, S., & Gong, S. (2023). Research on weighted directed dynamic multiplexing network of world grain trade based on improved MLP framework. Journal of Computer and Communications, 11(7), 191-207. https://doi.org/10.4236/jcc.2023.117012
Downloads
Published
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Taner Filiz, Hüseyin Topuz
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Accepted 2026-01-06
Published 2026-08-20
